Simple Arithmetic Could Add Up To An Obama Win In 2012 Election
772012 Election May Come Down To Ethnicity
The headline pretty much says it all. Do I believe it or should you believe it? Well, there’s a bit of suggestion – like a few numbers -- that make me wonder. They’re at least worth thinking about? Saw these numbers in an online article today – it was just a blurb so can’t give credit for any originality as I don’t know whom to credit. The figures are theirs – the comments are all mine.
Everything I read or study says Blacks vote on race (I don’t say that’s true nor do I deny it as I don’t personally know). Assuming it is fact, Obama will get 30% of voters just on race alone. If that be true…he only needs less than a third of everyone else to win. That’s rather a scary thought right there. Who else is going into this election with a pretty much assured 30% of the vote?
The Hispanic vote is a shoo in as they see him as the one and only chance for open borders – not to mention amnesty programs. If I were Hispanic and voting for my own benefit he’d certainly be my amigo. The Hispanics have nothing to lose by voting for Obama as he’s soft on anything even distantly related to stopping illegal immigration. In fact, he recently went over everybody’s head to make it easier and faster for illegal aliens to reunite with their families in the U.S.
He’ll get a lot of the gay/lesbian vote as he’s done them a few favors but has also alienated some so that could be a toss-up but I’m betting on a “yea” from them. He’s certainly not done all he promised this voting sector but he’s come through on a few things which might convince them he’s more the answer to their prayers than any other candidate.
Then there’s the chronically unemployed (I’m not talking about those folks that have worked their fannies off trying to find a job and can’t). Obama is determined the government’s going to continue to support folks who won’t or don’t want to work so they’re damned sure gonna vote for him. He’s a long lasting meal ticket the way they see it so he’s definitely their man.
Most of the senior persuasion are definitely against Obamacare but then again – well, there’s those who see it differently and if there’s enough of those with “bad vision” he’ll still get some of that vote. There’s always those among us in favor of socialized medicine and he’s got them in his pocket no matter what the age.
To suggest he’ll get the unions is a foregone conclusion. He not only handed them GM but supports their anti-business agenda and always has. If I were a union member he’d probably be my pick, too, if I were voting strictly for my own best interests.
Then we get to the uninformed and less than intelligent. These folks are very impressed when Obama speaks to the nation as he not only is intelligent and is an excellent speaker but he can make the less-than-intelligent think he’s the answer to their prayers as he’s very persuasive. In my opinion if he could run this country as well as he speaks about his capabilities to run it when he addresses the nation we might all vote for him.
The last good shot Obama has is the media. It’s unashamedly promoted him since the day they first laid eyes on him and continues to do so. No matter what he does – right, wrong or indifferent – our biased media finds a way to spin it where this POTUS is just about the finest thing since home made lovin’.
On the other side of that coin the media takes every pot shot they can at Republicans (whether deserved or not and admittedly some have deserved it) and as this election year heats up it doesn’t appear there’s going to be much change in that direction.
It appears to me, if it were possible, the media would take a big stick and beat the Tea Party folks into the ground until there wasn’t one left standing. Whether one agrees with the Tea Party agenda or not they’ve had to pretty well fend for themselves as far as the press/media is concerned and are still in the game with obvious intentions to stay there.
So, here we are facing another four years of what we just went through these last four. Is there any possibility at all of beating Obama in 2012? I’m just foolish enough to believe most of America is gonna stand up on their hind legs and say “No More!” Maybe that’ll happen and maybe that’s just an old lady’s fondest hope.
To quote our fellow Hubpages writer Ghost32: “Remember in November!”
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Are your numbers are based on population or turn out? If it is population then there is hope, because the young, and racial votes probably will not be as excited to turn out this time
American Romance -- again, we're looking at possibilities like who'll vote and who won't, etc. but theh possibility is there. Thanks for the comment and the vote. Best, Sis
MichiganMan567 -- thanks for commenting. As we have no figures whatsoever on turnout the figures are based on population only. Again, who'll vote is indeed a crapshoot -- this Hub is a "what if" but seems worthy of thought as a possibility. Appreciate you stopping by. Best, Sis
Angela
It is not another four years, it is another century with the same broken system that got us to where we are today.
The main ingredient to the collapse of the economy and much of the country is the loyal political party. They have enabled the politicians to not have to be accountable to the negative results of their actions. Election after election the loyal part voters don't change their party or their votes even when things get worse.
It is not a particular party, although the democrats have caused more than their share of it, but it is that neither party has taken the country forward. The control by each party alternates but the end result is a cancellation of efforts.
Obama has failed but it really doesn't matter which party wins in 2012, as it has been proven not to have helped any from the 2008 election.
People can argue about the validity of my opinion, but the fact is that we got here because of the actions of both parties. The economic collapse of 2008 took decades to setup the conditions for it to exist.
my opinion....
I agree with michiganman. The enthusiasm for Obama that brought out young voters and minority voters in 2008 is no longer there. They will stay home.
ib radmasters -- thanks for your comments on this Hub. I do agree that both parties are at fault to some extent. In my opinion Obama has exacerbated the problem during his term in office. Personally, I find myself looking to vote for the lesser of the evils running. Again, appreciate your comments and stopping by. Best, Sis
Hi Will -- it's my greatest hope that you're right (as I find you usually are)! I'm not finding much enthusiasm among young voters for Obama and from what I understand it's not only the kids in my neck of the woods that are very disappointed in him. Thanks for commenting and again -- hope you're right! Best, Sis
Sis, one thing gave the election to Obama in '08, the Evangelicals by 30% stayed home due to no candidate to vote for, I figure if Romney gets the nod, same deal 5 or 6 percent we get kicked in the ass again, and I ain't talking right or left, right center of the ass, I don't see much hope for change and I do hope I'm way off, but I ain't takin no bets, Peace
Dusty
Hey 50 -- doesn't look to me like Romney's a choice for a lot of folks which means voters could stay home in droves. Like you, I hope I'm way off, too -- BUT -- I'm also takin' no bets. Appreciate the astute comments and you stopping by. Best, Sis
Sis - Go easy now. A recent poll shows that the greatest fear American voters have is the reelection of Obama. It was 2 to 1. This nation, at least those of us who vote, out number these progressive numbskulls by either 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 depending on who is counting.
What we all need to do is make sure every Swingin' Richard gets to the polls on election day. The Dems will make sure every dead beat and dead person are there so we need to counter that.
The Frog
I am not sure the Hispanics are all for Obama. I have not known too many but those I have are not all that enthused about illegals. I can only rely on faith in the American people eventually making the right decisions.
Oh, Frog -- thank you. Your information is very encouraging to me. I'll definitely be one of those encouraging everyone to vote -- already started! Thanks for the wonderful comments! Best, Sis
Hey Dahoglund -- you know, in the final analysis you're absolutely right about having faith in the American people eventually making the right decisions. Thanks for the stopping by and the comment. Best, Sis
This scares me so much! I wish the Republicans were more appealing to the different races. If Obama is president for another term, our nation's economy is definitely going to go down the drain.
Couldn't agree with you more Adriatk -- thanks so much for sharing your opinion with us and commenting. That "drain" thing is pretty scary for all of us. By the way, welcome to Hub Pages -- look forward to reading your articles. Best, Sis
Smart analysis, but I hope you are wrong. If you're right, well we're doomed.
Hi Pop -- I'm hoping I'm wrong, too right along with you! Thanks for the comment. Best, Sis
You could be right Obama will be re-elected in 2012.
But, November is a long way off and anything can happen. What really scares me is when the main part of Obamacare hit in the 2012. Seniors, like me, will get poor medical care at best with the cuts in medicare.
You're right on target Roy -- Obamacare is an abomination and is going to seriously affect those of us who are Seniors. I wrote this article as a "what if" and am definitely an "anybody but Obama" voter. Thanks for your comment -- much appreciated and definitely agree with you. Best, Sis
I agree with your hub 100 percent, but I would like to add that there's a reason why he'll get 90 percent or more of the black vote just as there's a reason why hell probably get the highest percentage of the hispanic vote in history,have you heard the republican candidates' position on immigration?I have, and I assure you I will be working very hard so that no hispanic person I know will vote for any of these republican candidates ,
Hello Mio Cid -- thanks for commenting. Yes, I'm aware of the Republican position on immigration. Although I'm an Independent I embrace the same position they do on the immigration question. We may disagree but I tremendously appreciate you stating your opinion on the subject. Thank God we live in a country where we're free to disagree and communicate. Best, Sis
agree fully on the last sentence of your response,will be following for sure.greetings from exit 18w on the new jersey turnpike.
Mio Cid -- Drive carefully -- we need everyone who's willing to stand up and be counted (whether we share the same views or not) and you sound like a stand-up person. Thanks for stopping back by, my friend -- looking forward to reading your Hubs. Best, Sis
Your statement that "Obama as he’s soft on anything even distantly related to stopping illegal immigration" is not factually incorrect. Go look up the facts on how many illegal immigrants Obama's administration has deported versus what was going on during the George W. Bush years. Obama has dramatically increased deportations. So much so that it has drawn the ire from the Hispanic community.
Also, the assertion that the Hispanic community is by and large pro illegal immigration is also not based in fact. While many Hispanics might empathize with illegal immigrants from other Hispanic countries, many do not agree that people should come to the U.S. illegally, and know it hurts their community more than any other.
I'm also not sure I agree that the media is so favorable to President Obama. Newt Gingrich went off on the media for covering the story about his 2nd ex-wife. But the reason they don't cover such a story about Obama is because there is none to cover. President Obama has been married to one woman all of his life and is a family man with two children. People might not like his policies and positions, but one cannot fault him for not being a devoted father and husband. A good example for any community.
Rock_nj -- thanks so much for your comments and opinions. We obviously disagree as I don't find one admirable thing about either Obama or his wife nor do I see him, personally, having made all that much progress regarding immigration. Last week he suggested a way to make it easier for those deported to return to the U.S. sooner -- that doesn't look like progress to me. Again, thanks for commenting and glad we live in a country where we CAN disagree! Best, Sis
Rock_nj is correct that under Obama, the economy is so bad that not even illegals can find work, so they go back to Mexico to find a job!
The new illegals are drug cartels and runners. A ranch where we used to camp is now so dangerous that we've been warned by the BP to stay out!
Angela,
I am just trying to talk about the facts, not the way you perceive them.
Immigration Deportations Under Obama On Pace To Far Exceed Those Under Bush Administration
Read more: http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/immigration-depor
If you do not see anything admirable about the fact that President Obama has been married to the same women for years and is a committed father, then that says a lot about your own personal bias based on someone else holding a different idealogy than yoursel. A valid criticism of the black community has been the inability of many men within the community to commit to family life and raise their children. President Obama is setting a good example for the black community and everyone by being a committed family man, and those who are not completely blinded by idealogy can see this.
"A valid criticism of the black community has been the inability of many men within the community to commit to family life and raise their children."
In the 50's, of all the races, the most likely to have a devoted father in the house was the black race. We can thank 'cultural diversity' for the huge change in attitude. It's not inability so much as it's unwillingness. Why raise children when government will do it for you, and also foot the bill?
Hey Will -- thanks for the comment -- the Sheriff came out and warned my brother that his ranch and the area were now considered very dangerous because of illegals and to be very cautious at all times. Wow -- that's scary to even think about! Sure enough, they came home late one evening and their yard (fenced) was full of illegal aliens. Seems gunfire is understood in all languages and they ran off. Appreciate you, my friend. Best, Sis
Rock_nj -- glad you came back, my friend. I'm in one of those places with this president that it wouldn't matter if he were green, blue or some combination of both and had seven wives -- I personally don't like him and therefore my opinions are based on my personal dislike (which we're all entitled to). There's none among us that doesn't have some good qualities and I'm sure that's true in this case, too -- but feeling as I do I'm not going to hunt them or agree with anyone about them as his personal traits are no longer on my scope. When he passed Obamacare I took him off my radar as to his concern for this country and became one of the "Anybody BUT Obama" crowd. Trust me, I'm not all that thrilled with his opponents in this presidential race, either -- looks like we're in "a mell of a hess" all the way around.
As to ideology (looks like the dictionary says this is the correct spelling) it's defined as: "the doctrines, opinions, or way of thinking of an individual, class, etc." By that definition and as an individual, I'm definitely an ideologist as I adhere to my own opinion --and I definitely have not, do not and will not criticize any ethnic group because of color. That too is way off my radar. I can speak for no one but myself but I don't like the man and that is most definitely reflected in my writing. As a part-Indian I'm truly aware of "cultural diversity" and have been all my life -- so that's just heading off in the wrong direction with me to begin with.
I'm glad you commented again and I certainly respect your position on the matter. My article was written from my point of view and for us in Texas Obama hasn't done all that well as far as solving the illegal immigration problem -- we're still clothing them, feeding them and providing free health care. People along the border have to protect themselves from drugs, robbery and murder and their right to a peaceful existence in this country are long gone. A liberal press doesn't seem to say much about what's going on daily in the border states but they damned sure jump on the bandwagon when they can crunch the numbers and make Obama look like a hero to the general public. I've read the article you refer to and was grossly underwhelmed -- a good "number crunching", liberal story. It made no mention of how many of those same folks that were deported were crossing the same border again in less than a week. I didn't find the numbers for that. Your comments and opinions are well stated and your points well taken -- seems we'll just have to agree to disagree. Best, Sis
Will -- your points on "cultural diversity" are well taken. I think you're right on target with "inability" and "unwillingness" and change of attitude due to "cultural diversity." Thanks for commenting again -- appreciate it. Best, Sis
I'm not clear on your math.
1. African-Americans comprise 13% of the US population, not 30%. Also, not all vote for Obama any more than southern whites reflexively vote for a white southerner.
2. Hispanics do not vote as a bloc, although most will, like gays and lesbians, vote for Obama, because the Republican candidates tend to blow a lot of hot air demonizing them.
3. I'm not sure how you divide the long-term unemployed between those working hard to find a job and those who haven't.
But I do agree with you that Obama will most likely win reelection, the Republicans will spend the next 4 years screaming and moaning about him, and life will go on. :)
Livelonger -- took my info from an article on Yahoo (and that could be a big error as we all know) and a second article in a newspaper as to ethnic percentages in America -- because they agreed. I know the percentages are way off as far as reported in the State of Texas -- so, there's always room for error and that could be mine. If so, sorry for that. I'll have to disagree on the voting comparison as to Blacks and Southern Whites. The man's in office so enough of all of us voted for him to put him in office and that had to include Southern Whites. In Texas Hispanics do vote as a bloc and I understand they do in California, too. As to the unemployed -- unemployed is unemployed whether one's looking for work or not. I know a lot of folks who diligently search for work and so far -- no good. That doesn't change the numbers.
As an Independent I don't swing with Political Parties but will definitely vote for anyone but Obama -- just the way that is. I definitely agree with you -- no matter who wins there's gonna be a lot of screaming from one side or the other and life will go on -- my concern is how it'll go on and I'm sure that's everyone's concern no matter their political affiliation. Thanks so very much for commenting. Your points/comments were all well made and appreciated. Best, Sis
Not sure why the Yahoo article would say 30% of Americans are black when only 13% are. And Hispanics have voted about 2/3 in favor of Democrats, and 1/3 in favor of Republicans, in the last 2 elections, according to Pew Research; again, the Republicans are more likely to demonize Hispanics than Democrats are.
Well, I think your vote for the Republican in Texas, and my vote for Obama in California, might as well be pointless (or at least cancel each other out)! It's good we can talk civilly about these things, though. :)
livelonger -- After doing further research from several different sources I find lots of different answers on ethnic percentages -- one souce says 1/3 Black-- think it's all a crap shoot at best -- another reason I've given up political writing (as we discussed) -- great to have you comment again -- much appreciated. Best, Sis
There seems no big competitor againsta Obama. So I think he will be the winner this time too. He has done many great jobs in his career as a president this time.
how-to-make -- afraid we're on different sides of the fence on our POTUS but I so appreciate you commenting on my Hub -- guess we'll see how this all plays out in November. Again, thanks for stopping by - Best, Sis
American Romance Level 7 Commenter 4 months ago
You nailed it!.....my worries exactly! voted up!